Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 32% for "Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 13.5 points. Full distribution: August 31 32%, August 15 22%, August 7 9%, July 31 1%. The market has traded $7.6M in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. Recent high-level US-Iran talks in Switzerland on June 21–22 concluded with mediators Qatar and Pakistan reporting “encouraging progress” and agreement on a roadmap for a final deal within 60 days under the Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17. Technical-level sessions continue this week at the same venue, covering nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related security issues, with Iran agreeing to host IAEA inspectors. The framework extends the ceasefire and structures follow-on negotiations, though Israeli actions in Lebanon and statements from both sides introduce ongoing variables. These verified diplomatic steps and scheduled technical meetings form the primary recent catalysts shaping trader assessments of timing for the next round.

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