Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 36% for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 36%, October 31 17%, August 31 9%, May 31 0%. The market has traded $5.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.

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