Trump out as President before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 93% for "Trump out as President before 2027?". The market has traded $10.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Republican majorities in Congress have repeatedly tabled or defeated Democratic impeachment resolutions, including multiple measures tied to executive actions on Iran in 2025-2026, preventing any path to Senate conviction. No credible developments point to resignation, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other removal mechanisms before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 89.5% on "No" reflects this institutional barrier, combined with the absence of acute health or political crises that would alter the timeline. Midterm outcomes later in 2026 remain a potential variable but have not shifted probabilities meaningfully yet.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.