US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 30% for "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 30%, September 30 11%, August 31 6%, August 18 4%. The market has traded $11.7M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. US and Iranian officials signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that extended a ceasefire, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and outlined limited sanctions relief while deferring core nuclear issues. The framework sets a 60-day window ending around mid-August for technical negotiations on uranium enrichment limits, down-blending of existing highly enriched stockpiles under IAEA supervision, verification measures, and related sanctions. Planned follow-on talks in Switzerland were postponed amid regional tensions. These developments, following earlier rounds of diplomacy and a period of direct conflict, have shaped trader assessments of whether a comprehensive final agreement on Iran's nuclear program can be finalized before the interim deadline or any specified market resolution date. Key variables include compliance steps, IAEA access, and any external pressures from other regional actors.

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