US military action against Cuba by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 30% for "US military action against Cuba by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 30%, January 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $7.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US-Cuba tensions escalated sharply in 2026 after President Trump’s January executive order declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on third countries supplying oil to Cuba, triggering a severe fuel and economic crisis on the island. The administration has positioned naval assets including the USS Nimitz carrier group and Marine units in the Caribbean, increased surveillance flights, and conducted high-level visits such as Defense Secretary Hegseth’s June trip to Guantanamo Bay to signal readiness. Reports from May detail Pentagon planning for potential strikes or leadership-targeting operations, framed around Cuban drone acquisitions and ties to adversarial states. Cuba has rejected the allegations as pretexts while warning of major conflict risks. Congressional Democrats introduced a War Powers Resolution in late May to constrain unauthorized action, adding procedural uncertainty around any military timeline. Trader pricing reflects these overlapping sanctions, military signals, and diplomatic friction as the dominant near-term drivers.

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