US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

Traders currently price "August 31" at 53% for "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 11.0 points. Full distribution: August 31 53%, August 14 44%, July 31 24%, July 24 0%. The market has traded $7.6M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have strained the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire, with Iranian forces attacking commercial vessels in early July prompting US strikes on Iranian assets and renewed naval blockade measures. President Trump described the truce as over while signaling openness to continued talks, amid mutual threats of broader retaliation and Iranian efforts to assert control over shipping routes. Diplomatic channels involving mediators persist, focused on freedom of navigation, sanctions relief, and de-escalation timelines, though intermittent exchanges of fire continue. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether a verifiable two-week pause can stabilize amid these violations and competing interpretations of prior agreements.

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