Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Traders currently price "No Meeting by September 30" at 31% for "Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 7.7 points. Full distribution: No Meeting by September 30 31%, Switzerland 25%, Qatar 17%, Pakistan 9%. The market has traded $3.2M in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Recent US-Iran talks under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum concluded their first round in Switzerland with mediators Qatar and Pakistan reporting encouraging progress on a 60-day roadmap, including technical sessions at Buergenstock and mechanisms for de-confliction in Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz communications. Prior rounds occurred in Oman, Geneva, Islamabad, and Rome, while sanctions relief and nuclear oversight issues remain central. The tight probabilities across Gulf states, Switzerland, Pakistan, and “no meeting by September 30” reflect ongoing volatility from regional tensions, mediator influence, and uncertainty over whether the next phase will stay in Switzerland, shift to a traditional neutral site, or stall amid implementation disputes. Any confirmed venue announcement or extension of the negotiating window could quickly realign trader consensus.

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