Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Traders currently price "United Russia (ER)" at 59% for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: United Russia (ER) 59%, New People (NL) 33%, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 6%, Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 3%. The market has traded $16.4M in total volume and resolves Sep 20, 2026. United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for the September 2026 State Duma election due to its entrenched administrative resources, control of state media, and consistent polling leads around 50 percent or higher in state-aligned surveys. Preparations including party primaries, leadership restructuring, and three-day voting across 450 seats reinforce expectations of another constitutional majority for the ruling party. New People has gained visibility through recent conventions and regional efforts, occasionally polling ahead of traditional systemic opposition groups in some surveys, which supports its elevated market share as the likeliest second-place contender. Other parties such as LDPR and KPRF trail amid limited shifts in public support, while the overall environment of restricted genuine opposition and inclusion of voters from occupied territories further entrenches the projected hierarchy.

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