Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 9% for "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?". Full distribution: December 31 9%, March 31 0%, April 30 0%. The market has traded $3.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Lebanese government efforts to disarm Hezbollah have advanced in phases since the 2024 ceasefire, with the Lebanese Armed Forces reporting completion of the first phase south of the Litani River by early 2026 under a plan approved in September 2025. International pressure, including U.S. demands tied to the truce and UN resolutions, supported the August 2025 cabinet directive for the army to establish a state monopoly on arms by year-end, followed by extensions for subsequent phases north of the river and in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah has consistently rejected these measures as serving Israeli interests and vowed to retain its weapons, while the army faces logistical constraints and political divisions within Lebanon. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with full nationwide disarmament by near-term deadlines viewed as improbable absent major shifts in enforcement, negotiations, or external leverage.

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