Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 95% for "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?". The market has traded $11.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Reza Pahlavi's prospects for leading Iran in 2026 remain remote following the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Assembly of Experts' subsequent selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Iran's constitutional process transferred authority first to a three-member interim council and then to the new supreme leader, preserving regime continuity amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military pressure and domestic protests. Pahlavi, based in exile, has advocated for a transitional government and secular democracy through public statements and diaspora outreach, yet faces limited verifiable internal support and criticism over alignment with external actors. Trader consensus reflected in the 95% "No" probability aligns with these institutional developments and the absence of mechanisms for an opposition figure to assume power before year-end.

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