Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 55% for "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 55%, September 30 15%, May 31 0%, December 31 0%. The market has traded $2.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Russian forces continue limited infiltration attempts and artillery pressure around Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast as part of broader operations aimed at approaching Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian defenses have disrupted these moves through drone strikes on logistics, localized counterattacks near Borova that have drawn away Russian units, and fortified positions that prevent confirmed territorial gains into Lyman itself. Recent assessments through mid-June 2026 show no verified Russian advances toward the key objectives, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control over most surrounding areas despite sustained Russian Western Grouping operations. The resolution window ending June 30 leaves minimal time for a breakthrough absent a major shift in force allocation or Ukrainian redeployment.

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