Geopolitics — 479 live markets
Every live geopolitics market on Polymarket, sorted by lifetime volume. Odds are the leading outcome's implied probability; colour is the 24h move.
- Netanyahu out by...?▲ 2.0pt45%$124.0M
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?82%$95.4M
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?▼ 0.5pt9%$70.7M
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83%$58.6M
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?96%$39.7M
- Iran leader end of 2026?▲ 0.1pt81%$38.5M
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?▼ 0.7pt53%$32.0M
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?8%$29.1M
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026▼ 1.2pt58%$28.4M
- Israel closes its airspace by...?7%$26.9M
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?94%$24.6M
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?▲ 0.3pt100%$24.3M
- Iran leadership change by...?▼ 7.5pt25%$23.4M
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 20269%$23.4M
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?6%$21.8M
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?12%$20.3M
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?67%$19.1M
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?▼ 1.0pt8%$17.7M
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?▲ 1.0pt93%$17.0M
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?▼ 3.0pt19%$14.6M
- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?5%$14.2M
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?▼ 1.1pt83%$13.7M
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?▼ 0.1pt97%$11.7M
- Trump out as President before 2027?94%$10.6M
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?95%$10.6M
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms50%$9.7M
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?▼ 4.5pt41%$9.1M
- Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?▲ 0.5pt1%$9.0M
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?▼ 0.8pt91%$8.9M
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?▼ 1.0pt11%$8.4M
- Iran full airspace closure by...?▼ 0.5pt30%$8.2M
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.1pt100%$7.8M
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?▲ 0.1pt3%$7.8M
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?▲ 0.7pt58%$7.4M
- US military action against Cuba by...?20%$7.3M
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?▼ 2.0pt26%$6.7M
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?▼ 0.1pt3%$6.3M
- Russia nuclear test by...?▲ 0.1pt6%$6.2M
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?27%$5.9M
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?6%$5.4M
- MLB: 2026 American League Champion25%$4.2M
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?▲ 0.5pt23%$4.1M
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?▲ 3.6pt59%$4.1M
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?▼ 0.5pt15%$4.1M
- MLB: 2026 National League Champion47%$3.8M
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?8%$3.6M
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?▼ 1.0pt10%$3.5M
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden▼ 4.0pt85%$3.5M
- US strike on Mexico by...?12%$3.4M
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?▼ 3.5pt40%$3.4M
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?▲ 0.5pt91%$3.2M
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?▼ 0.1pt93%$3.2M
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner98%$3.1M
- MLB: Home Runs Leader▼ 1.0pt41%$3.1M
- Will Hezbollah disarm by...?▼ 0.5pt13%$3.1M
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?▼ 1.0pt94%$2.9M
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?▲ 0.5pt92%$2.9M
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...?▲ 8.0pt41%$2.9M
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?▲ 1.5pt40%$2.9M
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?▼ 1.0pt88%$2.7M
- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?7%$2.7M
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?3%$2.6M
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?83%$2.5M
- Ukraine election held by...?7%$2.5M
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?▼ 1.0pt12%$2.2M
- Will Alberta join the US? 98%$2.2M
- US strike on Colombia by...?▲ 6.0pt31%$2.2M
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?11%$2.1M
- Iran coup attempt by...?▼ 1.0pt11%$2.1M
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?22%$2.1M
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?▼ 0.5pt5%$2.1M
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?99%$1.9M
- US x Russia military clash by...?▼ 0.4pt4%$1.8M
- Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?25%$1.8M
- Ukraine election called by...?13%$1.8M
- MLB: ERA Leader▼ 0.1pt4%$1.8M
- Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?20%$1.7M
- MLB: AL Rookie of the Year▲ 0.5pt87%$1.6M
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?▼ 3.9pt64%$1.6M
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?88%$1.6M
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?▲ 0.1pt98%$1.6M
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?86%$1.6M
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?▲ 0.5pt76%$1.6M
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?16%$1.6M
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?96%$1.4M
- US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?▼ 1.0pt7%$1.4M
- Will any country leave NATO by...?▼ 0.7pt3%$1.4M
- Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?▼ 0.5pt17%$1.4M
- Lai Ching-te impeached by...?3%$1.4M
- MLB: Batting Average Leader▼ 2.0pt32%$1.3M
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner▼ 0.4pt98%$1.3M
- Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?▼ 0.9pt4%$1.3M
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?94%$1.3M
- MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner▲ 4.7pt63%$1.3M
- MLB: 2026 NL MVP▲ 2.4pt54%$1.3M
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?▼ 0.1pt97%$1.2M
- Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?▼ 1.5pt73%$1.2M
- Iran Nuke before 2027?96%$1.2M
- MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner85%$1.2M
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?▼ 0.5pt48%$1.1M
TOP 100 OF 479 BY VOLUME · THE GALAXY SHOWS THEM ALL
AS OF Aug 13, 20:00 UTC · ODDS FROM POLYMARKET · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE